Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore Versus Fact

Evidence from social psychology suggests that econometricians will avoid evidence that disconfirms their beliefs. Two beliefs of econometricians were examined: (1) Econometric methods provide more accurate short-term forecasts than do other methods; and (2) more complex econometric methods yield more accurate forecasts. A survey of 21 experts in econometrics found that 95% agreed with the first statement and 72% agreed with the second. A review of the published empirical evidence yielded little support for either of the two statements in the 41 studies. The method of multiple hypotheses was suggested as a research strategy that will lead to more effective use of disconfirming evidence. Although this strategy was suggested in 1890, it has only recently been used by econometricians. Comments Postprint version. Published in Journal of Business, Volume 51, Issue 4, October 1978, pages 549-564. Publisher URL: http://www.jstor.org/browse/00219398?config=jstor This journal article is available at ScholarlyCommons: http://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/45 Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore Versus Fact